https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bps/article/452425

According to Metro, Portland is expected to grow by 132,000 new households and 147,000 new jobs by 2035. Land use and investment decisions will shape how and where Portland grows over the next 25 years, which in turn will affect our ability to meet larger community goals.

Read the Growth Scenarios Report

How will we use the Growth Scenarios Report?

Where will new households and businesses develop if trends continue? Is there a form of growth that will help Portland advance prosperity, equity, health and sustainability? What investments are needed to support those choices? And how can the growth patterns help us achieve our goals?

Each of the four growth scenarios tests different hypothetical growth patterns: 

1. A “Default” pattern based on development trends over the last 15 years.
2. A dispersed network of Neighborhood Centers that helps create more complete communities throughout Portland. 
3. Growing in a more linear pattern along several key Corridors.
4. A more compact growth pattern that focuses growth in the Central City and surrounding neighborhoods.

Each alternative is evaluated using the Portland Plan Measures of Success, including access to parks, frequent transit, bike networks, natural areas and family-wage jobs; watershed health and tree canopy; and displacement risk. These metrics provide detailed analysis for community discussion about appropriate policies, housing location, urban design and public infrastructure investments throughout the city.

In particular, the performance measures provide a framework to evaluate different land use options as we update the Comprehensive Plan.

Key Findings

The analysis also highlights several opportunities and challenges:

• Choices for Prioritizing Growth ― Portland’s existing zoning allows for more than enough development capacity to accommodate the future growth forecast of 132,000 new households. This capacity creates an opportunity to make choices about where to focus or prioritize that growth.
• A Legacy Landscape ― As an already urbanized city, Portland’s existing development pattern defines many of the challenges. The forecasted growth represents roughly one-third of the total households and employment that will make up Portland in 2035, which means that two-thirds of the future built environment is already in place. This legacy development pattern will have a significant impact and moderating influence on how well future development patterns perform over the next 25 years. Large improvements in performance from land use changes will take more time. Other interventions, such as infrastructure investments, will be necessary to achieve the goals identified in the Portland Plan.
• Investment Priorities ― How and where public infrastructure investments are made will make a significant difference in how Portland performs. The performance of the different growth scenarios shows that most of the anticipated new growth should occur in a way that provides progress toward meeting the objectives. However, to meet those objectives Portland will need to invest in historically underserved areas to reduce disparities and increase equity. This two-track strategy will allow Portland to improve performance across the board by focusing growth in high-performing areas, while at the same time improving conditions in areas previously neglected.

Next Steps

With the publication of the Growth Scenarios Report, the City of Portland is kicking off Task 3: Consideration of Alternatives of Periodic Review as required by the state, which includes developing draft land use maps and project lists for the Comprehensive Plan Update — to be released during the summer. The next steps include:

• Model the effects of infrastructure investments: The scenarios in this report model the likely effects of 25 years of growth (the location of new jobs and housing), but not infrastructure investments. The next step is to add 25 years of corresponding infrastructure investments and show the resulting performance gains.

• Community mapping: In Fall/Winter 2013, community members will be engaged in a mapping exercise where they will discuss preferred approaches for managing growth and identify needed investments.

• Citywide Systems Plan and Transportation System Plan: To meet state requirements, the City must complete new fiscally constrained Citywide Systems and Transportation System Plans, which will describe the infrastructure (sewer, water, transportation) system improvements necessary to serve anticipated growth.

An addendum to this report will be prepared to evaluate a “preferred scenario” based on the community mapping exercise and the infrastructure investment plans.

For more information about the Comprehensive Plan Update and to stay informed, please visit our Get Involved page.

For more information about the Growth Scenarios Report please visit http://www.portlandoregon.gov/bps/62384 or contact Tom Armstrong at tom.armstrong@portlandoregon.gov. 

Being counted is important, but being heard is even better — especially when it comes to the future of your community.

Portland’s Comprehensive Plan helps manage expected population and job growth. But deciding where and how we grow requires extensive input from the community. Now you can weigh in on draft goals and policies included in the Working Draft Part 1.

There are two ways to provide input: 

1. Take the Comprehensive Plan Update Policy Survey, designed to help staff answer some critical questions around infrastructure investments, watershed health, industrial land and housing. Give us your feedback by May 1, and help us reach our goal of 500 responses!
2. Send us comments on the Working Draft Part 1 through the online comment form.

Your responses will help staff refine the goals and policies and guide the development of the Comprehensive Plan Maps in Part 2. Public input from the survey, online comments, workshops and other meetings will be summarized in a “What We Heard” summary published in June.

See the information boards about each Comprehensive Plan chapter and the breakout sessions.

• Comprehensive Plan Goals and Policies
• Infrastructure Investment breakout session
• Healthy Economy/Healthy Environment breakout session
• Transportation open house
• Urban Design Framework
• Urban Design and Neighborhood Character
• Growth Scenarios breakout session

The Infrastructure Investments breakout session allowed participants to spend a hypothetical $100 among five areas – both before and after a group discussion. 

More Workshops Ahead

If you missed the Southwest workshop or you’re waiting for one closer to home, here are six more opportunities to participate in the Comprehensive Plan Update – including one tonight in North Portland: 

• North: Tuesday, February 26 from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m.
  De La Salle North Catholic High School
  7528 N Fenwick Avenue, Portland
• Southeast: Thursday, February 28 from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m.
  Franklin High School
  5405 SE Woodward Street, Portland
• East: Saturday, March 2 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.
  David Douglas High School
  1001 SE 135th Avenue, Portland
  Spanish interpretation provided.

• Central: Tuesday, March 5 from 5 to 8 p.m.
  Smith Memorial Student Union, Portland State University
  1825 SW Broadway, Portland
• Northeast: Saturday, March 9 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.
  Beaumont Middle School
  4043 NE Fremont Street, Portland
• Business: Thursday, March 14 from 7:30 to 9:30 a.m.
  Mercy Corps – Aceh Community Room
  45 SW Ankeny Street, Portland

Online Survey

Portlanders can also fill out a survey at the workshops or online. Give us your advice on five sticky policy issues in the Comprehensive Plan Working Draft. 

With your feedback on the Working Draft Part 1, the Comprehensive Plan Update team will revise the goals and policies and develop draft maps and a capital project list to share with the public in the fall. 

• Prioritizing how limited dollars are spent on infrastructure.
• Making room for industrial jobs while improving and protecting the environment.
• Reducing household transportation and housing costs.
• Mitigating neighborhood displacement and change.
• Integrating the natural and built environments, reconnecting habitat and improving access to nature.

Your answers will help refine and amend many of the goals and policies in the Working Draft Part 1 of the Comprehensive Plan. It will also inform next steps, including developing a map, a list of significant projects and implementation measures, like Zoning Code updates.

The survey will close on May 1, 2013. Please keep an eye out for future surveys, workshops and events where you can help define how the Comprehensive Plan addresses these and many other important topics.